Wednesday, April 1, 2015

Screening for Breast Cancer: Do I do it or not?

A blog post by Lauren Citron, Jenni Jung, Shilpa Narayan, and Yena Son

If you are young and healthy, you should probably hold off on breast cancer screenings. Yes, we know the technology is available. We also know that a mammogram screening to detect breast cancer is an important preventative measure.

However, overdiagnosis and treatment has led to out-of-control spending within our healthcare system. This is why in 2009, the United States Preventative Services Task Force, an independent panel of experts in the federal department of Health and Human Services (HHS), recommended starting regular breast cancer screenings at age 50, not age 40, and to reduce preventative screenings from annually to biennially. Their guidelines even recommended that doctors stop telling women to examine their breasts for lumps regularly.

Not necessarily “better safe than sorry”
Breast cancer screenings are not necessarily helping patients. On average, they may be harming them instead...

Studies show the following:
  • As many as a third of breast cancer patients do not require treatment.
  • Among women who did and did not receive mammograms, mortality was the same, despite higher diagnosis and treatment among women who found tumors through mammograms.
  • 20 percent of treated tumors are not fatal and do not require intensive interventions such as chemotherapy and surgery.

This is because our technology is currently so advanced that we can even detect tumors that are growing so slowly that it will never become a risk to the patient during her natural life.

Yet, patients mistakenly assume that undergoing more tests and treatments is the same as receiving better care. Excessive screenings and unnecessary treatments must stop.

Reduce Unnecessary Screening and Treatment
We need representatives from Congress, members from HHS and the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force, insurance providers, the American Medical Association (AMA) and patient advocacy groups such as the American Cancer Society to get together. This working group should create standardized definitions, begin collecting data and measurements, and analyze current research, and ultimately form new recommendations on preventive screenings.

The U.S. Preventive Health Task Force should hold a leadership role in forming the group. In fact, we suggest they create a time limit to encourage parties to be willing to compromise on who receives a seat at the table, how often and how big a say in recommendations each stakeholder receives.

In the meantime, working groups to develop metrics and standards may be more feasible at the state level. For example, Washington and Oregon are taking actions to reduce health spending due to overtreatment.

After developing the appropriate level of preventive screenings for breast cancer and other diseases, this group should ask the government to publicly endorse this recommendation. Insurance companies and doctors should then be encouraged to take these standards into account when making recommendations to individual patients on coverage and treatment.

That’s a big group. Can we get buy-in?
We thought you might ask that. Here’s our take on how the most important stakeholders would respond:

Insurance Companies
It is probable that insurance companies will change coverage according to the new recommendations, especially when the recommendations involve raising the age or reducing the number of screenings. That is because according to the Affordable Care Act (ACA), insurance companies are responsible for covering the recommended preventive medical screenings. It is likely the age will be increased to reduce overdiagnosis and over-treatment in the near future but as research is conducted, the number of recommended screenings may once again be increased. Since it is easier to convince groups to be on board when the benefits are tangible now and future cost increases are less certain, insurance companies will likely support the present plan, creating a precedent for insurance companies to follow the working group’s guidelines.

Doctors
Doctors may disagree with the guidelines either because they believe these guidelines will hurt the patient or will hurt themselves financial due to the fee-of-service system (though the ACA is beginning to change this practice through pay for quality). They are then constrained by what is covered by insurance, which will likely reflect the government’s recommendations. Physicians should still be given the discretion to run the tests and screenings if they believe it is in the best interest of the individual patient. Providing doctor autonomy to act on the individual level and placing physician groups, such as executives from the AMA, on the working group may mitigate this concern and build trust.

What About the Patients?
Ultimately, a reformed screening standard will help patients on average. They are also anticipated to be the most resistant to our recommendation, since the overall benefits will come at the expense of some individuals. While some tumors are benign and patients will benefit from lack of treatment, there are other individuals whose condition could have been successfully treated had it been caught in early stages with earlier screenings.

Don’t Go, Status Quo!
Although most patients may be better off in the future without undergoing preventive screening and invasive treatments, patients are reluctant to reduce current screening practices because they see this as a departure from current practices. We are more reactive to potential losses, and often fail to consider the costs of action on our physical and emotional well-being. Current policies and practice reflect this aversion to loss.

If You Found It, Shouldn’t You Fix It?
We also take more stock in harms induced by action than in harms arising from inaction. Patients also tend to underestimate the possibility that their tumor will be benign. Because a course of action is readily available and easily identifiable (through pre-screening technology finding even the smallest tumors), patients are biased toward taking action to prevent potential harms. This is the case even though inaction may be a more rational choice, saving the patient physical and emotional stress as well as high financial costs for low expected gains.

Patients need clear, explicit data on the potential gains for not doing screenings or invasive treatments. This is especially true for certain subpopulations who tend to face lower risks on average for the diseases in question. Patients - along with their physicians - need more information and appropriate guidelines so they can fully weigh the losses from invasive surgery against the potential benefits. This information can be collected and made publicly available by the working group.

I Still Want The Screening!
Okay. Sure. After weighing their choices, patients should still be allowed to ask for additional screenings. But there’s another built-in motivation to not get unnecessary screenings: you’ll probably have to pay more! It is likely that if screenings are conducted outside of the recommended time period, they will not be fully covered by insurance. A copay limit - such as $50 per mammogram under the age of 50 or more frequently than every other year - could be put in place for middle and high income patients. Low income patients could be fully subsidized to avoid disproportionately affecting those who cannot afford to pay. This recommendation shares the cost, leaving options on the table to protect individual choice while reducing the overscreening that currently occurs in the United States medical field.

9 comments:

  1. Joe Liss:

    You miss one key issue: Insurers have not gotten on board yet, despite US Preventive Services Task Force decisions. For example, Aetna still covers mammograms for women ages 40-50 and still covers PSA tests for all men above the age of 40, both of which the US Preventive Services Task Force have cautioned against. Insurers stand to pay for fewer tests and fewer procedures, letting them charge a lower price, if they prohibit these tests. Yet not a single one has jumped on board.

    First, patients are demanding the opposite. We tell patients to focus on preventative measures, and saying that prevention is only good sometimes is a confusing message. Second, patients will easily remember a news story about the one prostate cancer case that could have been prevented with better testing.

    Finally, physicians have an economic incentive to give more tests, more procedures, and more patient visits to make more money. The economics are stacked against you.

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  2. This is a very thoughtful approach to the problem. I would just like to make two points. First, as more and more care is provided through Accountable Care Organizations(ACOs) with the premium on value as opposed to fee-for-service pricing then the long run looks more promising. The "Doc Fix" for Medicare that is pending in the Senate coupled with states pushing for Medicaid value pricing should accelerate the movement and reduce unnecessary procedures over time.The second point is regarding the specifics of your proposal. Here, I would recommend that you not include the Congress in the discussions as that would make it too political. I would recommend another Task Force of physicians and medical researchers to update the 2009 recommendations given more recent information.I would involve the advocates by asking them to nominate Task Force members but have HHS make the final decisions regarding members to insure balance.I would also require that the Task Force meet with the advocates several times during the process to get buy in.It is critical to maintain the integrity of the Task Force as one depending only on science but one that has strong support across the spectrum of stakeholders. Ray Scheppach, Senior Lecturer, The Batten School of Leadership and Public Policy.

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  3. I could not agree more with your approach to the problem. Unfortunately, as some of the other commenters have pointed out, there is a limit to even what clear cost-savings alone can induce in terms of behavior changes. Insurance companies are undoubtedly aware of the additional burden these screenings (and false positives/unnecessary treatment) have on their bottom line and the premiums they charge consumers. But they have to weigh that against the reputation hit they risk incurring if they stop covering these procedures. When people as successful as Mark Cuban have such a hard time understanding these trade-offs, it does not seem like there is much hope for the majority. But I also am very intrigued at alternative means of conveying risk. It's clear that describing probabilities, type I and type II errors, etc. is not on its own very effective because the lingering "what if" is too large.

    The Harding Center for Risk Literacy has an interesting approach--they attempt to visualize these risks, and I find that this form of presentation is much more intuitively convincing. Maybe each GP should have a series of these related to common health screenings to help people better understand the trade offs they are entering when they chose to be unnecessarily screened?

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  4. The other tragic reality pertaining specifically to breast cancer screening for young women is that mortality rates are much higher for them, and the breast cancer is typically caught at a later stage than older women. In essence, this means that even when breast cancer is caught via regular screenings in 30 or 40 somethings, it's likely that 1) it would have been caught soon enough because they were going to begin exhibiting other symptoms 2) catching it likely will not aid their prognosis.

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  5. This blog post is well written and thought out. The writers made a very good point when they indicated that patients, regardless of age, overestimate the rate of metastasis and lethality of any cancer. However, the likelihood of communicating this point to any consumer of healthcare is very low. The stigma associated with cancers in the United States pushes patients to consume more healthcare, regardless if the treatment is linked to positive health outcomes.

    However, the authors fall short in their suggestion to coordinate "representatives from Congress, members from HHS and the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force, insurance providers, the American Medical Association (AMA) and patient advocacy groups such as the American Cancer Society to get together" to promote guidelines. This suggestion is flawed for several reasons. Healthcare in the United States is sadly a business. Joe Liss could not have put it better when he wrote that physicians have and economic incentive to provide more healthcare (Especially in Fee For Service plans). Additionally, anything resembling rationing is politically infeasible. Americans simply don't want the government to interfere with their healthcare.

    I particularly enjoyed the suggestion for a value based insurance plan included at the end of the post. These proposed plans would successfully ration care by placing higher prices on medical treatments that don't have proven benefits over lower cost alternatives.

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  6. This post is well argued and well written. I have two comment for discussion. First, it is important to consider other drivers of out-of-control health care cost growth in the United States. Pricing, administrative waste, and substandard care are all drive up costs. Many health analysts argue that we can avoid the more ethically challenging questions of preventative screenings by first addressing these other cost drivers.

    Second, the post should have mentioned the important of genetic testing and individual risk. Women with a BRCA gene mutation are far more likely to have breast cancer than those without it. Policymakers must be agile and flexible to craft the correct preventive guidelines as medical technology advances.

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  7. I agree with other commenters that this blog post is thoughtful and well written. I considered it from a global health perspective and am struck by how very different these policy questions are in the United States than they would be in many developing countries, where non-communicable diseases (NCDs) represent an increasingly large proportion of overall morbidity and cause of mortality, but where NCD interventions lag far behind the burden of disease. In these countries, the issue is not whether screening can lead to unnecessary treatment, but how to build capacity for more screening and better diagnostics.

    Wade Warren

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  8. I agree with Professor Scheppach that involving Congress in setting medical guidance would make the process entirely too political. I think it's dangerous to blatantly mix politics, lobbying, and access to healthcare in this way; the task force would need to be highly evidence-based in order for physicians and patients to trust the recommendations and buy in (particularly once CMS implements value-based reimbursement). I think a congressional role also increases the chance that the task-force elicit cries of "healthcare rationing" from political opponents who are concerned about the role of government in the healthcare system or other stakeholders who worry that decisions are being made with an eye toward cutting costs rather than improving outcomes.

    I really like your focus on educating patients, and Kyle's suggestion of having primary care physicians use graphics to display the cost/benefit of the different screening tests. The logic behind why it doesn't always make sense to get tested is tricky, and conveying this information to patients in a transparent way could make a big difference in their willingness to undergo the test and any subsequent procedures.

    You may want to look into HHS' vision for the future of Health IT (http://www.healthit.gov/sites/default/files/ONC10yearInteroperabilityConceptPaper.pdf) which focuses on achieving a "learning health system" (p. 8) where patients are more involved in their care and comparative effectiveness research is quicker, more accessible, and more tailored to patients than today's research. The combination of a CMS shift to value-based payments (i.e. outcome based payments) and more comprehensive comparative effectiveness research could change the motivations of your stakeholder groups, and affect the ultimate purpose/goal of your proposed group.

    --Liz Dobrenz

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